This article was published by AFP:
Around half of South Africa's population may have already been infected by coronavirus, a figure far higher than the documented tally, a study and analysis of death figures suggest.
Samples taken from almost 5,000 blood donors across four South African provinces in January showed that between 32 and 63 percent had antibodies to the coronavirus.
The figure compares with clinically confirmed case rates of just two to three percent, according to a South African research that has not yet completed peer review.
The numbers could be understated, said lead investigator Marion Vermeulen of the South African National Blood Service. People with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 are unable to donate blood for 14 days, and therefore less likely to be sampled, she explained.
Most antibodies were detected in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. Both were epicentres of South Africa's second infection wave when it started in December.
Officially, South Africa has recorded close to 1.5 million coronavirus cases, of which just under 48,500 have been fatal - the highest toll in Africa.
According to the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), more than 140,000 excess natural deaths have occurred since May last year.
But the chief statistician with leading private medical insurer Discovery said that, based on his observations, around 90 percent of those extra fatalities are attributable to Covid-19. If so, the real death toll from coronavirus in South Africa would exceed 120,000, chief actuary Emile Steep told AFP.
Steep estimates that South Africa's Covid-19 mortality stands around 0.4 percent, a figure derived from an Infection Fatality Rate published by London's Imperial College.
"Covid deaths are under-reported in almost every single country in the world," Steep said in a phone interview on Wednesday. "Many people who are vulnerable to Covid have a lot of other conditions... so the cause is always hard to define."
TWEET YOUR COMMENT