Gold, defence stocks and Venezuela’s bonds rise but oil falls after US seize Maduro
1/5/2026 12:21:00 PM
Donald Trump’s strike on Venezuela last weekend, and the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, is sparking a dash for safe haven assets, and shares in defence companies, today.
Gold has jumped by more than 2% this morning to $4,420 an ounce, towards the record highs set at the end of last year.
Silver’s up around 4% at $75.50 an ounce, adding to its strong gains in 2025.
Trump’s move on Caracas on Saturday morningforces markets to react to political shockwaves just as investors return to their desks after the Christmas and new year break.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says markets are "barely flinching" at the Venezuelan news, although a risk premia is creeping back into asset prices.
Venezuela’s government bonds have leapt in value this morning (as JP Morgan predicted earlier), as investors bet on a debt restructuring following the capture of president Maduro.
As explained at 8.04am, Venezuela’s debt trades far below its face value after the country defaulted in 2017, but has been rising in recent weeks as some traders have anticipated regime change in Caracas.
Deutsche Borse data shows that a Venezuelan government bond that matures in 2017 has jumped in price, from 31.5p on the dollar to over 40p on the dollar.
A second bond which should have been repaid in 2022 has risen too, from 31.5p to 34p.
These gains mean bond vultures who swooped on Venezuela’s debt last month will already be sitting in profits, as the markets anticipate that Maduro’s removal could lead to a restructuring of Venezuela’s government debt.
Reuters reports that bonds issued by the country’s government and state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), jumped as much as 8 cents on the dollar, or around 20%, in early European trading, with analysts predicting further gains to come.
The oil price remains in the red this morning, with Brent crude now down 1% at $60.15 per barrel.
Analysts are in broad agreement that while the Venezuela attack is unlikely to boost demand for oil, it also won’t lead to a rapid surge in supply.
Gold has jumped by more than 2% this morning to $4,420 an ounce, towards the record highs set at the end of last year.
Silver’s up around 4% at $75.50 an ounce, adding to its strong gains in 2025.
Trump’s move on Caracas on Saturday morningforces markets to react to political shockwaves just as investors return to their desks after the Christmas and new year break.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says markets are "barely flinching" at the Venezuelan news, although a risk premia is creeping back into asset prices.
Venezuela’s government bonds have leapt in value this morning (as JP Morgan predicted earlier), as investors bet on a debt restructuring following the capture of president Maduro.
As explained at 8.04am, Venezuela’s debt trades far below its face value after the country defaulted in 2017, but has been rising in recent weeks as some traders have anticipated regime change in Caracas.
Deutsche Borse data shows that a Venezuelan government bond that matures in 2017 has jumped in price, from 31.5p on the dollar to over 40p on the dollar.
A second bond which should have been repaid in 2022 has risen too, from 31.5p to 34p.
These gains mean bond vultures who swooped on Venezuela’s debt last month will already be sitting in profits, as the markets anticipate that Maduro’s removal could lead to a restructuring of Venezuela’s government debt.
Reuters reports that bonds issued by the country’s government and state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), jumped as much as 8 cents on the dollar, or around 20%, in early European trading, with analysts predicting further gains to come.
The oil price remains in the red this morning, with Brent crude now down 1% at $60.15 per barrel.
Analysts are in broad agreement that while the Venezuela attack is unlikely to boost demand for oil, it also won’t lead to a rapid surge in supply.