26 Oct 201306:45 AM
Is the Saudis' value to the U.S. depreciating?

Zvi Bar'el

Haaretz

Saudi Arabia is trapped between the blossoming relations between Obama and Rohani and the Syrian crisis.

Saudi Minister of Intelligence and Head of the National Security Council Prince Bandar Bin Sultan heaped public scorn on the United States last week when he, at his own initiative, rejected an offer inviting Saudi Arabia to serve as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

He did so “because of the organization’s attitude towards Syria and the Palestinians. This was only the opening salvo. The Saudis don’t really care about what happens at the UN. Saudi Arabia conducts its own policies, occasionally bypassing the international organization, such as by giving massive support in funds and weapons to the Syrian opposition. The Saudis are furious at U.S. regional policies, and specifically at the blossoming relations between Iran and the U.S. or, more specifically, between Obama and Rohani.

In addition to rejecting the offer to join the Security Council, a senior Saudi official leaked to the Reuters news agency what Bandar had to say at a meeting with European ambassadors, indicating that “Saudi Arabia intends to make far-reaching changes in its relations with US.” He gave no details regarding the steps to be taken or the timing of these actions, but the intention was not lost on Washington.

The Saudis are furious over American hesitation in attacking Syria, and were deeply offended by the lack of U.S. backing for their invasion of Bahrain two years ago to assist the kingdom in suppressing a civil revolt. They are also angry at the partial suspension of military aid to Egypt after the deposition of President Morsi and the army’s takeover, as well as at the laid back U.S. mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that lacks the pressure on Israel that the Saudis were expecting. To top it all, the US is now courting Iran in a manner that threatens Saudi Arabia’s strategic standing in the region.

Bandar, together with his extended family, is close to former President Bush’s family. For many years he managed to ride in tandem with Republican administrations, by helping rebels in Afghanistan in their struggle against the Soviet Union as well as aiding the rebels in Syria, and by making oil deals.

After the 9/11 attacks he went out of his way to demonstrate Saudi Arabia’s support for the U.S., ensuring that the country invest a significant portion of its foreign currency reserves (currently estimated at over $650 billion) in U.S. Treasury bills. Bandar was the one standing behind Saudi assurances to increase oil production to assist the sanctions against Iran, working with Egyptian president Mubarak to curtail Iranian influence in the region.

The kingdom had a separate score to settle with Syria. It blamed Syrian president Bashar Assad for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri, who was a Saudi protégé ever since he started working there as a contractor. Saudi Arabia waged an intense political struggle with Iran and Syria over wielding influence in Lebanon, especially after Iran also became a sponsor state of Iraq.

Even though Saudi Arabia viewed the success of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt with suspicion - since they consider the movement to be a dangerous one which threatens the “Islamic Liberal” character used by the Saudis to define their Wahabi kingdom - they acceded to American requests and granted the new regime 5 billion dollars to help Egypt out of its economic crisis. The American request was not the only factor at play. The Saudis were also vying for influence with Qatar, which gave Egypt 8 billion dollars. Saudi aid was a lifesaver for Morsi. In exchange the Saudis demanded that he not renew diplomatic relations with Iran, thus thwarting the conciliation efforts embarked upon by Iranian president Ahmadinejad.

Saudi Arabia thereby found itself, in contrast to the customary quiet nature of its regional tactics, at the forefront of the political struggle, without its traditional ally Egypt, which became embroiled in its own affairs and stopped being a significant player in Middle Eastern crises. However, the Saudis did not expect the slap in the face Egypt received at the hands of Obama when he refused to back the military regime of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, withholding some of the promised military aid, while at the same time hinting at a partial lifting of sanctions against Iran. From its standing as a bulwark against Iran, in collaboration with Washington, The Saudis have been placed on a defensive footing.

From the other side of the Persian Gulf the Saudis are hearing new voices coming out of Teheran, seeking conciliation with the U.S. Thus, for example, this week there was a proposal by the first deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, to embark on open diplomacy with the U.S. “Formal diplomacy has limitations which public diplomacy doesn’t have”, he explained, saying that football matches or parliamentary delegations can play a role in such diplomacy.

Former foreign minister and head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization Ali Akbar Salehi also declared that a decision to open a line of communications with the U.S. is a decision that supreme leader Ali Khamenei took a year and a half ago. Even an opponent of President Hassan Rohani, Daud Ahmedinejad, brother of the former president, said that “we are abstaining from attacking the new regime following a request by Khamenei”. These declarations have not gone unrequited by the U.S.

Some senators are ready to ease the sanctions or at least allow Iran access to $50 billion that are frozen in American and European banks. Washington is hinting at its intention to invite Iran to a ‘Geneva 2’ summit conference which will deal with the Syrian crisis. There is also a planned meeting between Iran and the group of 5+1 nations, scheduled for early November, aimed at further discussions of Iranian proposals.

Saudi Arabia is trapped between the Iranian-American channel and the Syrian crisis, sensing that its value to the U.S. is rapidly depreciating. In theory it can withdraw some of its investments in the U.S. and diversify its weapon acquisition sources, allowing the Russians into its military bases.

It can act in contrast to U.S. policy and supply the Syrian rebels with advanced weapons. However, these options have severe limitations. The Saudis depend on the U.S. for defense of the Persian Gulf. Its army is based on American infrastructure, and using oil as a bargaining chip is limited due to stated American plans to increase their own oil production.

Nevertheless, Saudi fury poses a dangerous dilemma for Washington. It still doesn’t know Iran’s true intentions and it certainly does not intend to replace its pro-Western allies with Iran. In the meantime the U.S. is striving to appease the Saudis. Secretary of State Kerry held several discussions with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal, clarifying that the U.S. has no intention of dealing with Iran at the expense of the Saudis.

He also sided with countries demanding that Assad not be a part of any political solution in Syria, at a meeting of nations friendly to Syria held in London earlier this week. Jerusalem is concerned that American payback to the Saudis will come in the form of pressure to accelerate negotiations with the Palestinians. It is doubtful whether this will impress the Saudis at a time when, not far from them, an Iranian hegemony is slowly taking shape.