Louise Boyle and Saphora Smith
The Independent
Louise Boyle and Saphora Smith wrote this article in The Independent:
"It's now or never." That is the urgent call-to-action today from the world's leading authority on climate change which warns that global emissions must start declining in under three years - and be slashed in half by 2030 - to prevent dangerous temperature rise.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was published on Monday after the international talks blew past a Friday deadline, with scientists and government officials struggling to reach consensus. The report, which is reviewed line by line, was finally signed off late Sunday by 195 member governments after the longest approval process in the IPCC's 34-year history.
The report found that limiting Earth's average temperature rise to the ambitious 1.5C (2.7F) agreed by nations under the Paris Agreement, will require "immediate and deep" emissions cuts across every sector of society.
In short, the IPCC says, the world is at a crossroads on whether we seize the opportunity to avoid climate catastrophe.
"The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming , " said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee.
Among the key findings are:
- Greenhouse gas emissions must begin to decline by 2025, at the latest - and be cut by 43 per cent by 2030 - to achieve 1.5C limit. Methane needs to be reduced by around one-third by 2030
- Even if these cuts are achieved, the IPCC notes, "it is almost inevitable" the 1.5C threshold will be temporarily exceeded but could return to below it by end of century
- Limiting global warming will require "substantial reduction" in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels like hydrogen
- The importance of "sustainable healthy diets" was underlined, with an emphasis on plant-based foods which have low environmental impact and are beneficial to health
- Agriculture and forestry can provide vast emissions reductions, and remove and store carbon. However, it cannot compensate for delay in other sectors
- More money is needed. Finance levels are currently 3-6 times lower than levels required by 2030 to limit warming to below 2C
- There has been increased climate action. In the past decade, the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries, dropped up to 85 per cent
- Cities are hubs for emissions cuts by creating walkable environments, electric public transport, green roofs and facades, more urban agriculture and parks. This will also bring health benefits by reducing heat, cleaner air and better mobility.
The global average temperature has risen about 1.1C since preindustrial times and the climate crisis is already unleashing a spiral of heatwaves, drought, intense storms, wildfires and sea level rise around the world.
The IPCC says that the global temperature will stabilise when emissions reach net zero. For 1.5C, this means achieving net zero globally in the early 2050s. For 2C, it is in the early 2070s.
Crucially, even curbing temperature rise to around 2C (3.6F) - the upper limit laid out by the Paris deal - still means emissions must begin to decline by 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.
"It's now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C, " said Jim Skea, co-chair of the expert working group who compiled the assessment.
"Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible."
While the challenges are significant, the report offered some good news. From 2010 -2019, emissions were at the highest levels in human history - driven by the fossil fuel industry - but that rate of growth has slowed. Regardless, current emissions and policies still put the planet on pace for well beyond 1.5C.
The third installment from the IPCC summarizes how much progress has been made in reducing pollution across energy, industry, transportation and agricultural sectors, and the barriers which block a speedier transition to a greener world.
It focuses on measures to reduce painful impacts of the climate crisis, particularly for those in countries in the global south who are already facing extreme risks.
"Most of the people living on the front lines of the climate emergency have done the least to cause this problem," said Fionna Smyth, head of global policy and advocacy at Christian Aid. "For example despite accounting for 17 per cent of the world's population, Africans contribute just 4 percent of global emissions. They need major emitters to take drastic action so that we can all have a safe and secure climate."
Among the sticking points during negotiations was insistence from representatives of major emerging economies that their right to development be recognized.
Several observers told The Associated Press that India was a key voice pushing for recognition in the report that developing countries have contributed a far smaller share to current emissions levels than industrialized nations, and should therefore not need to make the same steep cuts.
Others, such as oil exporter Saudi Arabia, argue that fossil fuels will still be needed for decades to come and phasing them out too quickly could hurt the world's poorest.
Some scientists called out the report's emphasis on individual behaviour change and technologies like carbon capture and storage, which are still unproven at scale.
"Once again, the fossil fuel industry has played a blinder," said Professor Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and Director of the Oxford Net Zero initiative.
"At a time of rising carbon dioxide emissions, record profits, and a rush to license new oil and gas fields, all the headlines around the latest IPCC report are about how 'we' are going to have to change our behaviour and pay to scrub carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere.
"How about 'they' - the industry - need to stop selling products that cause global warming - by safely and permanently disposing of all carbon dioxide generated by their activities and products by 2050? This would, of course, increase their costs - but gradually and predictably over the next 30 years by slightly less than their profits have increased over the past 9 months. Of course, the IPCC can't say this, but that doesn't make it any less true."
The IPCC report provides a basis for international talks like Cop27, the climate summit being held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, this November.
The report was prepared by 278 authors from 65 countries, who volunteer their time.
In August, the first IPCC chapter dealt with the physical science of climate change. The assessment found that it was "unequivocal" that climate change is human-caused, widespread and intensifying.
The second chapter was published last month and found that half the planet is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis, with impacts arriving faster than previously expected.
The rest of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report will be completed later this year.
"It's now or never." That is the urgent call-to-action today from the world's leading authority on climate change which warns that global emissions must start declining in under three years - and be slashed in half by 2030 - to prevent dangerous temperature rise.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was published on Monday after the international talks blew past a Friday deadline, with scientists and government officials struggling to reach consensus. The report, which is reviewed line by line, was finally signed off late Sunday by 195 member governments after the longest approval process in the IPCC's 34-year history.
The report found that limiting Earth's average temperature rise to the ambitious 1.5C (2.7F) agreed by nations under the Paris Agreement, will require "immediate and deep" emissions cuts across every sector of society.
In short, the IPCC says, the world is at a crossroads on whether we seize the opportunity to avoid climate catastrophe.
"The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming , " said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee.
Among the key findings are:
- Greenhouse gas emissions must begin to decline by 2025, at the latest - and be cut by 43 per cent by 2030 - to achieve 1.5C limit. Methane needs to be reduced by around one-third by 2030
- Even if these cuts are achieved, the IPCC notes, "it is almost inevitable" the 1.5C threshold will be temporarily exceeded but could return to below it by end of century
- Limiting global warming will require "substantial reduction" in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels like hydrogen
- The importance of "sustainable healthy diets" was underlined, with an emphasis on plant-based foods which have low environmental impact and are beneficial to health
- Agriculture and forestry can provide vast emissions reductions, and remove and store carbon. However, it cannot compensate for delay in other sectors
- More money is needed. Finance levels are currently 3-6 times lower than levels required by 2030 to limit warming to below 2C
- There has been increased climate action. In the past decade, the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries, dropped up to 85 per cent
- Cities are hubs for emissions cuts by creating walkable environments, electric public transport, green roofs and facades, more urban agriculture and parks. This will also bring health benefits by reducing heat, cleaner air and better mobility.
The global average temperature has risen about 1.1C since preindustrial times and the climate crisis is already unleashing a spiral of heatwaves, drought, intense storms, wildfires and sea level rise around the world.
The IPCC says that the global temperature will stabilise when emissions reach net zero. For 1.5C, this means achieving net zero globally in the early 2050s. For 2C, it is in the early 2070s.
Crucially, even curbing temperature rise to around 2C (3.6F) - the upper limit laid out by the Paris deal - still means emissions must begin to decline by 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.
"It's now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C, " said Jim Skea, co-chair of the expert working group who compiled the assessment.
"Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible."
While the challenges are significant, the report offered some good news. From 2010 -2019, emissions were at the highest levels in human history - driven by the fossil fuel industry - but that rate of growth has slowed. Regardless, current emissions and policies still put the planet on pace for well beyond 1.5C.
The third installment from the IPCC summarizes how much progress has been made in reducing pollution across energy, industry, transportation and agricultural sectors, and the barriers which block a speedier transition to a greener world.
It focuses on measures to reduce painful impacts of the climate crisis, particularly for those in countries in the global south who are already facing extreme risks.
"Most of the people living on the front lines of the climate emergency have done the least to cause this problem," said Fionna Smyth, head of global policy and advocacy at Christian Aid. "For example despite accounting for 17 per cent of the world's population, Africans contribute just 4 percent of global emissions. They need major emitters to take drastic action so that we can all have a safe and secure climate."
Among the sticking points during negotiations was insistence from representatives of major emerging economies that their right to development be recognized.
Several observers told The Associated Press that India was a key voice pushing for recognition in the report that developing countries have contributed a far smaller share to current emissions levels than industrialized nations, and should therefore not need to make the same steep cuts.
Others, such as oil exporter Saudi Arabia, argue that fossil fuels will still be needed for decades to come and phasing them out too quickly could hurt the world's poorest.
Some scientists called out the report's emphasis on individual behaviour change and technologies like carbon capture and storage, which are still unproven at scale.
"Once again, the fossil fuel industry has played a blinder," said Professor Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and Director of the Oxford Net Zero initiative.
"At a time of rising carbon dioxide emissions, record profits, and a rush to license new oil and gas fields, all the headlines around the latest IPCC report are about how 'we' are going to have to change our behaviour and pay to scrub carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere.
"How about 'they' - the industry - need to stop selling products that cause global warming - by safely and permanently disposing of all carbon dioxide generated by their activities and products by 2050? This would, of course, increase their costs - but gradually and predictably over the next 30 years by slightly less than their profits have increased over the past 9 months. Of course, the IPCC can't say this, but that doesn't make it any less true."
The IPCC report provides a basis for international talks like Cop27, the climate summit being held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, this November.
The report was prepared by 278 authors from 65 countries, who volunteer their time.
In August, the first IPCC chapter dealt with the physical science of climate change. The assessment found that it was "unequivocal" that climate change is human-caused, widespread and intensifying.
The second chapter was published last month and found that half the planet is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis, with impacts arriving faster than previously expected.
The rest of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report will be completed later this year.
