Mirella Hodeib
The Daily Star
A recent spate of attacks against Hezbollah have imposed a new challenge on the party despite its recognized military prowess and robust intelligence network, political sources and analysts told The Daily Star this week. The analysts said Hezbollah was becoming acquainted with new terrain thanks to the ongoing turmoil in Syria, but dismissed the idea that the group would violently retaliate against attacks on the party, which are expected to continue.
A senior political source close to Hezbollah said the party had not waited until the last minute to take the necessary precautions or introduce some changes to its tactics.
“Widening political divisions [in Lebanon and the region] as well as growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have imposed fresh challenges on Hezbollah and security considerations of a new kind,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“[But] vigilance in Lebanon has become part of Hezbollah’s doctrine of protection against Israel.”
Hezbollah’s active involvement in the Syrian conflict and the leading role it played in crushing rebel groups in Qusair this summer have turned it into the sworn enemy of the Syrian opposition as well as militant Islamist groups such as the Nusra Front, which has vowed to target the party in Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia, one of the main backers of the Syrian opposition, has been highly critical of the military backing the Shiite party has given Damascus. In June, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said his country “cannot be silent” over Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria.
In a clear sign that the spillover from Syria had actually hit Lebanon, threats against the party materialized in late May when a rocket attack hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, wounding four people and damaging property.
A security source said two rocket launchpads the Lebanese Army discovered in the Kesrouan town of Ballouneh and the rocket that slammed into a valley in Jamhour, near Baabda, last month were also meant to strike the southern suburbs.
In the latest incident, a roadside bomb exploded near two SUVs on the highway linking the town of Majdal Anjar to the Masnaa border crossing with Syria earlier this week, killing one Hezbollah operative and wounding three others. It was the fourth time that a vehicle transporting Hezbollah fighters to Syria was targeted by an improvised explosive device in the Bekaa Valley, another party stronghold.
But the most significant attack was the July 9 car bombing in the Beirut suburb of Bir al-Abed, which wounded at least 50 people and caused considerable material damage.
Hezbollah has not seen these types of problems facing them within Lebanon for some time, said Charles Lister, analyst and head of MENA at the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre. But such attacks were to be expected considering the threats that have been made against the party both in Lebanon and Syria, he added.
Bilal Saab, executive director and head of research & public affairs of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis North America, called the recent attacks “nothing new.”
“Hezbollah has dealt with such attacks and assassinations throughout its military struggle against Israel,” Saab said. “This is nothing new, even if the perpetrator might be new.”
Lister predicted that Hezbollah would not change its rhetoric or policies on Syria as a result.
“I think we can expect certainly sort of an increased Hezbollah security presence in their areas of particularly strong support, so perhaps a gradual militarization of their areas in southern Beirut for example,” he said.
“We could also see some Hezbollah scouting operations in terms of watching Sunni villages up in the Bekaa Valley known to currently hold members of the Syrian opposition or Syrian rebels, such as Arsal, for example.”
While Lister noted that the pace and continuity of attacks seemed to suggest the perpetrators were “almost definitely Lebanese and if not, they are Syrian with very strong links in Lebanon,” Saab argued that the perpetrators could be any number of people.
“It is very much unclear who is behind these attacks. Lebanon is a heavily penetrated country and its security is profoundly compromised,” Saab said.
But the senior source close to Hezbollah disclosed that preliminary investigations had shown Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians were behind the attacks, although the party hadn’t ruled out Israeli involvement via agents.
With Syrian refugee numbers nearing 1 million and no active government, Lebanon’s already vulnerable security situation has become even weaker.
The source said Hezbollah circles widely believed that Syrian rebel groups plotted the IED attacks in the Bekaa Valley. A string of villages in the western Bekaa, including Saadnayel, Barr Elias, Majdal Anjar and the eastern bank of the Qaraoun Lake, constituted a “friendly environment” for Lebanon-based anti-Assad groups.
“These groups are made up of Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians and other nationalities and receive basic training in abandoned farms in the western Bekaa,” said the source. “They’re incapable of carrying out artillery training, but they are taught to put together rudimentary explosive devices.”
As for the Bir al-Abed bombing, Hezbollah blames extremist Lebanese and Palestinian groups, the source said.
The source confirmed that Hezbollah had apprehended a Syrian man believed to be behind last week’s bombing in Beirut. The man planted the bomb under a parked vehicle, according to security sources.
He then apparently left the area in a pickup truck driven by two Palestinian men. The security sources said the party had asked Palestinian factions in camps adjacent to the southern suburbs to hand over the two suspects.
According to the senior political source, Hezbollah was well aware that Palestinian camps constituted a safe haven to those carrying out attacks against the Army and Hezbollah.
However, the source said the party would not be dragged into a confrontation with the camps, adding that it was in close contact with various Palestinian factions, including former ally Hamas, with whom ties have greatly suffered due to their opposing views on Syria.
For IHC Jane’s Lister, the idea of Hezbollah retaliating in Lebanon wasn’t feasible: “I think they realize they are in a bit of tough situation now and retaliating ... in Lebanon will only make that worse.”
“Despite the fact that supporting Assad has proven to be a fairly damaging move for Hezbollah, I think at the same time the Hezbollah leadership has shown itself to be relatively smart.”
The source close to Hezbollah said it was “difficult to imagine Hezbollah resorting to any kind of hasty or uncalculated reaction since the attacks so far have resulted in limited damage.”
“But in the event a senior Hezbollah official is targeted ... or loss of civilian lives occurs, nobody can predict the reaction of Hezbollah supporters.”
A senior political source close to Hezbollah said the party had not waited until the last minute to take the necessary precautions or introduce some changes to its tactics.
“Widening political divisions [in Lebanon and the region] as well as growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have imposed fresh challenges on Hezbollah and security considerations of a new kind,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“[But] vigilance in Lebanon has become part of Hezbollah’s doctrine of protection against Israel.”
Hezbollah’s active involvement in the Syrian conflict and the leading role it played in crushing rebel groups in Qusair this summer have turned it into the sworn enemy of the Syrian opposition as well as militant Islamist groups such as the Nusra Front, which has vowed to target the party in Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia, one of the main backers of the Syrian opposition, has been highly critical of the military backing the Shiite party has given Damascus. In June, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said his country “cannot be silent” over Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria.
In a clear sign that the spillover from Syria had actually hit Lebanon, threats against the party materialized in late May when a rocket attack hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, wounding four people and damaging property.
A security source said two rocket launchpads the Lebanese Army discovered in the Kesrouan town of Ballouneh and the rocket that slammed into a valley in Jamhour, near Baabda, last month were also meant to strike the southern suburbs.
In the latest incident, a roadside bomb exploded near two SUVs on the highway linking the town of Majdal Anjar to the Masnaa border crossing with Syria earlier this week, killing one Hezbollah operative and wounding three others. It was the fourth time that a vehicle transporting Hezbollah fighters to Syria was targeted by an improvised explosive device in the Bekaa Valley, another party stronghold.
But the most significant attack was the July 9 car bombing in the Beirut suburb of Bir al-Abed, which wounded at least 50 people and caused considerable material damage.
Hezbollah has not seen these types of problems facing them within Lebanon for some time, said Charles Lister, analyst and head of MENA at the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre. But such attacks were to be expected considering the threats that have been made against the party both in Lebanon and Syria, he added.
Bilal Saab, executive director and head of research & public affairs of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis North America, called the recent attacks “nothing new.”
“Hezbollah has dealt with such attacks and assassinations throughout its military struggle against Israel,” Saab said. “This is nothing new, even if the perpetrator might be new.”
Lister predicted that Hezbollah would not change its rhetoric or policies on Syria as a result.
“I think we can expect certainly sort of an increased Hezbollah security presence in their areas of particularly strong support, so perhaps a gradual militarization of their areas in southern Beirut for example,” he said.
“We could also see some Hezbollah scouting operations in terms of watching Sunni villages up in the Bekaa Valley known to currently hold members of the Syrian opposition or Syrian rebels, such as Arsal, for example.”
While Lister noted that the pace and continuity of attacks seemed to suggest the perpetrators were “almost definitely Lebanese and if not, they are Syrian with very strong links in Lebanon,” Saab argued that the perpetrators could be any number of people.
“It is very much unclear who is behind these attacks. Lebanon is a heavily penetrated country and its security is profoundly compromised,” Saab said.
But the senior source close to Hezbollah disclosed that preliminary investigations had shown Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians were behind the attacks, although the party hadn’t ruled out Israeli involvement via agents.
With Syrian refugee numbers nearing 1 million and no active government, Lebanon’s already vulnerable security situation has become even weaker.
The source said Hezbollah circles widely believed that Syrian rebel groups plotted the IED attacks in the Bekaa Valley. A string of villages in the western Bekaa, including Saadnayel, Barr Elias, Majdal Anjar and the eastern bank of the Qaraoun Lake, constituted a “friendly environment” for Lebanon-based anti-Assad groups.
“These groups are made up of Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians and other nationalities and receive basic training in abandoned farms in the western Bekaa,” said the source. “They’re incapable of carrying out artillery training, but they are taught to put together rudimentary explosive devices.”
As for the Bir al-Abed bombing, Hezbollah blames extremist Lebanese and Palestinian groups, the source said.
The source confirmed that Hezbollah had apprehended a Syrian man believed to be behind last week’s bombing in Beirut. The man planted the bomb under a parked vehicle, according to security sources.
He then apparently left the area in a pickup truck driven by two Palestinian men. The security sources said the party had asked Palestinian factions in camps adjacent to the southern suburbs to hand over the two suspects.
According to the senior political source, Hezbollah was well aware that Palestinian camps constituted a safe haven to those carrying out attacks against the Army and Hezbollah.
However, the source said the party would not be dragged into a confrontation with the camps, adding that it was in close contact with various Palestinian factions, including former ally Hamas, with whom ties have greatly suffered due to their opposing views on Syria.
For IHC Jane’s Lister, the idea of Hezbollah retaliating in Lebanon wasn’t feasible: “I think they realize they are in a bit of tough situation now and retaliating ... in Lebanon will only make that worse.”
“Despite the fact that supporting Assad has proven to be a fairly damaging move for Hezbollah, I think at the same time the Hezbollah leadership has shown itself to be relatively smart.”
The source close to Hezbollah said it was “difficult to imagine Hezbollah resorting to any kind of hasty or uncalculated reaction since the attacks so far have resulted in limited damage.”
“But in the event a senior Hezbollah official is targeted ... or loss of civilian lives occurs, nobody can predict the reaction of Hezbollah supporters.”
