Canada Plans For Worst-case Scenario Amid US Invasion Concerns

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed that Ottawa spent the past year developing defense scenarios in case US President Donald Trump ordered military action against Canada.

Asked how seriously Ottawa was taking Trump’s threats to make Canada the “51st state,” Carney indicated that the government had carefully examined the possibility of a potential US invasion over the past year, according to The New York Times.

The newspaper quoted Carney as saying: I think it is incumbent to calculate similar ‘black swan’ scenarios. This is simply risk management to prepare for every contingency. This is not the base-case scenario a US invasion but not being prepared for it would be irresponsible.

According to the Canadian prime minister, preparations for worst-case scenarios have prompted Ottawa to significantly reduce its reliance on Washington. In particular, Canada plans to completely phase out the Starlink satellite communications service and is reconsidering a deal to purchase 88 U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets in favor of European alternatives.

Relations between the United States and Canada deteriorated sharply in 2025 after President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, citing national security concerns and drug trafficking. Ottawa responded with similar measures.

Despite a temporary suspension of the tariffs and efforts to resolve the dispute, Washington later raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%.

According to Bloomberg, the latest round of trade negotiations collapsed at the last minute due to the position taken by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Trump has also repeatedly called for Canada to join the United States, suggesting it become the “51st state.” He has also floated, among others, Greenland and Venezuela as potential candidates to become new US states.

The term “black swan” refers to a rare and unexpected event with a major and far-reaching impact.