Ayman Mustafa
Gulf News
With Syria and Lebanon in crisis, along with Iraq and others, the triangle of beneficiaries - Israel, Iran and Turkey - will be busy firefighting
Looking at Afghanistan - more than a decade after the America-led invasion of the country to oust the Taliban regime - and Iraq - a decade after the Anglo-American-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussain - one can easily conclude that Syria is going to be even worse. This time, it might even be part of a wider ‘unfinished business’ - affecting countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Iran! The latest developments in Syria, and those that concern Syria, indicate that we are heading towards the aforesaid conclusion. The Syrian regime is defiant and will hang on till “the last drop of Syrian blood”. The opposition is more of a chaotic grouping of opportunists, redundant figures and less-than-genuine patriotic reformers. Ordinary Syrians, who are bearing the brunt of the fire and killing in the country - whether as freedom-fighters or regime security forces - are just the fuel for a nasty game being played by amateur gamblers on a Russian roulette table, with black and white turbaned shaikhs preaching killing and destruction.
Since the mid-1970s, many around the world have complained about the deteriorating quality of everything: from human activity to machinery to the arts. That was evident in international relations after the collapse of Soviet Union, with many examples of western interventions in different parts of the world leaving those regions in a state of continuous struggle and turmoil. From Panama and Nicaragua to Afghanistan and from Yugoslavia to Somalia. The latter was - and still is - an ideal case of the “unfinished business” leading to a Protracted Low Intensity Conflict (PLIC). The toppling of the last “real” Somali president, Mohammad Siad Barre, in 1991, left a situation wherein Somalia ceased to exist as a country, but did not “disappear” as an entity. That coincided with the infamous invasion of Kuwait by Saddam’s Iraq. Some argued at the time that these developments were the final remnants of the bi-polar Cold War era, which was coming to an end, heralding the ‘New World Order’. The making of this ‘New World Order’ itself was a prolonged “unfinished business”.
Humanity takes decades to move from one phase of evolution and development to another. Yet, looking at similar junctures in the history it may be difficult to find an analogy to what the world has been going through in the past three decades. A nucleus preserving the basic values and principles used to be a launch-pad for transformation, but now this nucleus itself is suffering from degradation. So the transitional period between the two phases of human development and evolution may be longer and less articulate than previous civilisational leaps. A pessimistic view may see this as “end of history” or in a more metaphysical and mystical way “doomsday”. I’m not a futurologist, but with little pondering, one can easily see this transitional phase of human development and evolution to be another “unfinished business”. Though that depends on the criteria of the “finishing” you expect.
Looking at the region - with a focus on Syria - the main conclusion that seems more likely is that a ‘Somalisation’ process is underway and may be there for long. The situation in the so-called Arab Spring countries is deteriorating and will continue to do so for some time to come. Other countries are waiting for a similar fate - think of Algeria after Abdul Aziz Bouteflika and fragmented Sudan. Even the three regional pseudo-powers (the ‘Beneficiary Triangle’) - Israel, Iran and Turkey - will not be spared the negative impact. With Syria and Lebanon in a PLIC state, along with Iraq and may be others (Jordan is a possibility), the triangle of beneficiaries will find itself in a position of firefighters, trying to protect themselves from the flames. Whoever escapes the flames will be left with painful scars - and the “unfinished business” will not allow a recovery.
Is there a way out of this gloom? Definitely yes. Humans always find their way out. As a believer in boundless human capability, I think the new generation will find better remedies for the region’s and the world’s ills. The most important thing we need to do, and urgently, is to “finish” with the lousy business we are in.
Looking at Afghanistan - more than a decade after the America-led invasion of the country to oust the Taliban regime - and Iraq - a decade after the Anglo-American-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussain - one can easily conclude that Syria is going to be even worse. This time, it might even be part of a wider ‘unfinished business’ - affecting countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Iran! The latest developments in Syria, and those that concern Syria, indicate that we are heading towards the aforesaid conclusion. The Syrian regime is defiant and will hang on till “the last drop of Syrian blood”. The opposition is more of a chaotic grouping of opportunists, redundant figures and less-than-genuine patriotic reformers. Ordinary Syrians, who are bearing the brunt of the fire and killing in the country - whether as freedom-fighters or regime security forces - are just the fuel for a nasty game being played by amateur gamblers on a Russian roulette table, with black and white turbaned shaikhs preaching killing and destruction.
Since the mid-1970s, many around the world have complained about the deteriorating quality of everything: from human activity to machinery to the arts. That was evident in international relations after the collapse of Soviet Union, with many examples of western interventions in different parts of the world leaving those regions in a state of continuous struggle and turmoil. From Panama and Nicaragua to Afghanistan and from Yugoslavia to Somalia. The latter was - and still is - an ideal case of the “unfinished business” leading to a Protracted Low Intensity Conflict (PLIC). The toppling of the last “real” Somali president, Mohammad Siad Barre, in 1991, left a situation wherein Somalia ceased to exist as a country, but did not “disappear” as an entity. That coincided with the infamous invasion of Kuwait by Saddam’s Iraq. Some argued at the time that these developments were the final remnants of the bi-polar Cold War era, which was coming to an end, heralding the ‘New World Order’. The making of this ‘New World Order’ itself was a prolonged “unfinished business”.
Humanity takes decades to move from one phase of evolution and development to another. Yet, looking at similar junctures in the history it may be difficult to find an analogy to what the world has been going through in the past three decades. A nucleus preserving the basic values and principles used to be a launch-pad for transformation, but now this nucleus itself is suffering from degradation. So the transitional period between the two phases of human development and evolution may be longer and less articulate than previous civilisational leaps. A pessimistic view may see this as “end of history” or in a more metaphysical and mystical way “doomsday”. I’m not a futurologist, but with little pondering, one can easily see this transitional phase of human development and evolution to be another “unfinished business”. Though that depends on the criteria of the “finishing” you expect.
Looking at the region - with a focus on Syria - the main conclusion that seems more likely is that a ‘Somalisation’ process is underway and may be there for long. The situation in the so-called Arab Spring countries is deteriorating and will continue to do so for some time to come. Other countries are waiting for a similar fate - think of Algeria after Abdul Aziz Bouteflika and fragmented Sudan. Even the three regional pseudo-powers (the ‘Beneficiary Triangle’) - Israel, Iran and Turkey - will not be spared the negative impact. With Syria and Lebanon in a PLIC state, along with Iraq and may be others (Jordan is a possibility), the triangle of beneficiaries will find itself in a position of firefighters, trying to protect themselves from the flames. Whoever escapes the flames will be left with painful scars - and the “unfinished business” will not allow a recovery.
Is there a way out of this gloom? Definitely yes. Humans always find their way out. As a believer in boundless human capability, I think the new generation will find better remedies for the region’s and the world’s ills. The most important thing we need to do, and urgently, is to “finish” with the lousy business we are in.
