MARCA
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has witnessed its first major earthquake with the stunning elimination of Brazil at the hands of Norway in the Round of 16. The five-time world champions' collapse has sparked a wave of criticism around the globe, but the spotlight has fallen on one decisive moment in the first half: a missed penalty that could have changed everything — and one that Vinicius Jr. was not allowed to take.
Just 14 minutes into the match, Matheus Cunha was brought down inside the box following a heavy challenge from Norwegian defender Kristoffer Ajer. With Vinicius Jr. entering the game as Brazil's leading scorer in the tournament and carrying the mantle of the team's unquestioned leader, most expected the No. 7 to step up. Instead, to the surprise of fans and commentators alike, the order from the bench was different.
A plan built on cold analytics
The player chosen to take the penalty was Bruno Guimarães. The Newcastle United midfielder struck the ball with power, but Norwegian goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland guessed correctly and produced a brilliant save, denying Brazil the opening goal. After the match, following Brazil's 2-1 defeat and elimination, Carlo Ancelotti addressed the media and revealed the controversial statistical strategy that kept Vinicius away from the spot.
"We used statistics based on a full year of data from both our players and the opposition. The best penalty taker in the Seleção was Raphinha," Ancelotti said in comments reported by Sportskeeda. The Italian coach defended his decision by pointing to a purely data-driven ranking that did not place the Real Madrid star among Brazil's top specialists.
The penalty hierarchy that cost Brazil
Ancelotti went on to explain how the team's penalty-taking order had been determined before the match. According to the coaching staff's analysis, Vinicius was not even among the first four available options on the field, leading Brazil to hand the responsibility to Guimarães.
"Among the players available, the best was Neymar, then Igor Thiago, then Bruno Guimarães, and then Gabriel Martinelli. We chose Bruno Guimarães because we believed he was the best option on the field at that moment to take it," Ancelotti explained.
The carefully designed plan backfired in the worst possible way and ultimately contributed to Brazil's downfall.
The ghost of previous misses
As controversial as the decision was, supporters of the strategy point to Vinicius' recent penalty record as justification. Sources close to the Brazilian Football Confederation's analytics department note that, under Ancelotti at Real Madrid between 2021 and 2025, Vinicius converted six of his nine penalty attempts, a respectable but far from flawless success rate.
His numbers with the Brazilian national team, however, are far less convincing. Vinicius has missed two of the three penalties he has taken for Brazil, including a costly miss against Venezuela during the 2024 World Cup qualifiers. Those memories apparently weighed more heavily with the coaching staff than the excellent form and confidence the winger had displayed throughout the tournament.
Davide Ancelotti defends the decision
Rather than expressing regret after the defeat, Brazil's coaching staff firmly backed its approach. Davide Ancelotti, assistant coach and son of the national team manager, also defended the pre-planned strategy.
"It's a predefined decision, just like in every match," he said. "We always inform the players in advance who will take the penalty. It is entirely the coaching staff's decision. Missing a penalty is part of football, and today it happened to us."
A historic fall for Brazil
The final whistle only deepened the crisis surrounding Brazilian football. Although Neymar scored from the penalty spot deep into stoppage time, the goal arrived too late and served only as a consolation in a 2-1 defeat that sent Norway through to the quarterfinals.
Brazil's overall performance also produced a worrying statistic. According to Opta, the Seleção finished the match with just 34 percent possession, their lowest share of the ball in a World Cup match since England 1966.
The ruropean vurse lives on
Brazil's exit from the 2026 World Cup extends an alarming trend. The Seleção's last six World Cup eliminations have all come against UEFA nations, reinforcing Europe's status as Brazil's ultimate nemesis on football's biggest stage.
The defeat is also significant because it marks Brazil's first elimination in the Round of 16 since the 1990 World Cup in Italy. The debate over whether data-driven decision-making should outweigh talent, instinct, and superstar status is only beginning in South America.
Just 14 minutes into the match, Matheus Cunha was brought down inside the box following a heavy challenge from Norwegian defender Kristoffer Ajer. With Vinicius Jr. entering the game as Brazil's leading scorer in the tournament and carrying the mantle of the team's unquestioned leader, most expected the No. 7 to step up. Instead, to the surprise of fans and commentators alike, the order from the bench was different.
A plan built on cold analytics
The player chosen to take the penalty was Bruno Guimarães. The Newcastle United midfielder struck the ball with power, but Norwegian goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland guessed correctly and produced a brilliant save, denying Brazil the opening goal. After the match, following Brazil's 2-1 defeat and elimination, Carlo Ancelotti addressed the media and revealed the controversial statistical strategy that kept Vinicius away from the spot.
"We used statistics based on a full year of data from both our players and the opposition. The best penalty taker in the Seleção was Raphinha," Ancelotti said in comments reported by Sportskeeda. The Italian coach defended his decision by pointing to a purely data-driven ranking that did not place the Real Madrid star among Brazil's top specialists.
The penalty hierarchy that cost Brazil
Ancelotti went on to explain how the team's penalty-taking order had been determined before the match. According to the coaching staff's analysis, Vinicius was not even among the first four available options on the field, leading Brazil to hand the responsibility to Guimarães.
"Among the players available, the best was Neymar, then Igor Thiago, then Bruno Guimarães, and then Gabriel Martinelli. We chose Bruno Guimarães because we believed he was the best option on the field at that moment to take it," Ancelotti explained.
The carefully designed plan backfired in the worst possible way and ultimately contributed to Brazil's downfall.
The ghost of previous misses
As controversial as the decision was, supporters of the strategy point to Vinicius' recent penalty record as justification. Sources close to the Brazilian Football Confederation's analytics department note that, under Ancelotti at Real Madrid between 2021 and 2025, Vinicius converted six of his nine penalty attempts, a respectable but far from flawless success rate.
His numbers with the Brazilian national team, however, are far less convincing. Vinicius has missed two of the three penalties he has taken for Brazil, including a costly miss against Venezuela during the 2024 World Cup qualifiers. Those memories apparently weighed more heavily with the coaching staff than the excellent form and confidence the winger had displayed throughout the tournament.
Davide Ancelotti defends the decision
Rather than expressing regret after the defeat, Brazil's coaching staff firmly backed its approach. Davide Ancelotti, assistant coach and son of the national team manager, also defended the pre-planned strategy.
"It's a predefined decision, just like in every match," he said. "We always inform the players in advance who will take the penalty. It is entirely the coaching staff's decision. Missing a penalty is part of football, and today it happened to us."
A historic fall for Brazil
The final whistle only deepened the crisis surrounding Brazilian football. Although Neymar scored from the penalty spot deep into stoppage time, the goal arrived too late and served only as a consolation in a 2-1 defeat that sent Norway through to the quarterfinals.
Brazil's overall performance also produced a worrying statistic. According to Opta, the Seleção finished the match with just 34 percent possession, their lowest share of the ball in a World Cup match since England 1966.
The ruropean vurse lives on
Brazil's exit from the 2026 World Cup extends an alarming trend. The Seleção's last six World Cup eliminations have all come against UEFA nations, reinforcing Europe's status as Brazil's ultimate nemesis on football's biggest stage.
The defeat is also significant because it marks Brazil's first elimination in the Round of 16 since the 1990 World Cup in Italy. The debate over whether data-driven decision-making should outweigh talent, instinct, and superstar status is only beginning in South America.
