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WHO: US to participate in meeting on influenza vaccine composition

The United States will take part in a World Health Organization meeting at the end of the month to determine the composition of upcoming influenza vaccines, the agency's official said at a press conference on Wednesday.Washington officially left the WHO in January after a year of warnings that doing so would hurt public health in the U.S. and globally, saying its decision reflected failures in the U.N. health agency's management of the COVID-19 pandemic.It has been unclear how much the country would work with the WHO following the departure, and the collaboration on flu vaccines is a sign of an ongoing link.Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's director for epidemic and pandemic preparedness, said the global influenza surveillance and response network — a system of more than 150 laboratories across 130 countries — plays a central role in tracking seasonal and zoonotic influenza viruses and updates vaccine recommendations every six months.There are seven collaborating centers, including facilities in the U.S., the UK and Australia.Van Kerkhove said there had also been "a slight dip" in the global circulation of influenza virus samples after funding challenges, but shipments had now resumed.GUINEA-BISSAU VACCINE STUDY 'UNETHICAL' - TEDROSAt the same press conference, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said a planned U.S.-funded research in Guinea-Bissau to study the effects of hepatitis B vaccines on newborns, which has drawn significant criticism, is unethical."As far as WHO's position is concerned, it's unethical to proceed with this study," Tedros said, but added that it was ultimately a domestic decision.African health officials in January said the study has not been canceled, but will undergo further ethical review.Scientists have opposed the study because some of the newborns involved would not get the vaccine, which is known to be safe and save lives, in a country with high rates of hepatitis B. The disease transmits commonly from mother to child during birth and can cause liver failure and cancer.The study's researchers say the project is ethical because the vaccine is not yet administered at birth in Guinea-Bissau, where the first dose is given at six weeks.The research was due to investigate potential "non-specific effects" of the vaccine, including skin disorders and neuro-developmental disorders, such as autism.

11-02-2026 20:37

Six Minutes of Daily Exercise Can Boost Brain Health and Delay Alzheimer’s

Vishwam Sankaran wrote this article in The Independent:Just six minutes of intense exercise every day can boost the brain’s lifespan and delay the onset of neurological conditions like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases, according to a new study.The research, published last week in The Journal of Physiology, found that a short but intense bout of cycling can increase the production of a special brain protein linked to brain formation, learning, and memory.Scientists, including those from the University of Otago in New Zealand, say the special protein named brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) can protect the brain from age-related cognitive decline.Previous studies have shown that increasing the availability of BDNF in the brain encourages the formation and storage of memories, enhances learning, and also boosts cognitive performance overall.“BDNF has shown great promise in animal models, but pharmaceutical interventions have thus far failed to safely harness the protective power of BDNF in humans,” study lead author Travis Gibbons from the University of Otago said in a statement.“We saw the need to explore non-pharmacological approaches that can preserve the brain’s capacity which humans can use to naturally increase BDNF to help with healthy aging,” Dr Gibbons said.In the new study, researchers analysed the influence of fasting and exercise on BDNF production in 12 physically active participants - six males and six females aged between 18 and 56 years.They assessed the contributing role played on this protein’s production by factors such as fasting for 20 hours, light exercise, a six-minute bout of high-intensity vigorous cycling, and the combined effects of fasting and exercise.Scientists found that brief, but vigorous, exercise was the best way to increase BDNF compared to one day of fasting with or without a lengthy session of light exercise.Researchers say BDNF increased by a factor of four to five times compared to fasting, or prolonged activity.“Six minutes of high-intensity cycling intervals increased every metric of circulating BDNF by 4 to 5 times more than prolonged low-intensity cycling,” researchers wrote in the study.However the cause for these differences remains unknown, they say, adding that more research is needed to understand the biological mechanisms involved.Scientists suspect the brain may be switching its favoured fuel source during exercise for another to ensure the body’s energy demands are met.“We are now studying how fasting for longer durations, for example up to three days, influences BDNF. We are curious whether exercising hard at the start of a fast accelerates the beneficial effects of fasting,” Dr Gibbons said.“Fasting and exercise are rarely studied together. We think fasting and exercise can be used in conjunction to optimize BDNF production in the human brain,” he added.

17-01-2023 09:42

Successful Surgery to Separate Conjoined Twins Performed, the First of Its Kind in Lebanon

L'Orient Today published this article:Caretaker Health Minister Firass Abiad has presented the details of a successful surgery performed to separate conjoined twins at the American University of Beirut Medical Center in the “first surgical operation of its kind” to be conducted in Lebanon, the state-run National News Agency reported on Tuesday.Abiad explained that the twins' parents contacted him six months ago to ask for help after an X-ray that then-expectant mother underwent showed the twins were conjoined.In Lebanon, in light of the economic crisis, hospitals and medical institutions are suffering from shortages of supplies and medicines, as well as medical and nursing staff.Abiad explained that he contacted AUBMC, which agreed to perform the separation operation despite the current crisis, and “succeeded in proving the ability of the American University and the medical system in Lebanon to carry out the operation.”"In fact, our hospital institutions are still able to be in the first line in providing advanced health care to citizens and residents in Lebanon and to preserve what they provided before the crisis. With the improvement of conditions, these institutions will be able to provide more," Abiad said.He added that "the health system in Lebanon, even if it faces great difficulties, is a flexible system and has the ability to present achievements.”The preparation for the surgical operation took four months, as a team of doctors and nurses prepared to accompany the twin girls, Riham and Reem, until they were discharged from the hospital.“The full coordination between the team members and planning for all the details played a key role in the success of the operation, which required 10 hours and was characterized by great accuracy and extreme sensitivity, in order not to have any negative complications on the separated organ,” the NNA reported.

25-01-2023 16:05

Women Unaware of Important Sign that Indicates Increased Breast Cancer Risk

Meredith Clark wrote this article in The Independent:Dense breast tissue poses up to four times higher risk of developing breast cancer. However, a new study has shown that many women are unaware of the risks of breast density.Dense breasts refers to breasts that are composed of more fibrous and glandular tissue compared to fatty tissue, and can be detected while undergoing a mammogram.The study, which was published in Jama Network Open on 23 January, surveyed 1,858 women ages 40 to 76 years from 2019 to 2020 who had recently undergone mammography, had no history of breast cancer, and had heard of breast density.It assessed women’s understanding of breast density as a significant breast cancer risk compared to other well known risk factors, such as having a relative with breast cancer, being overweight or obese, drinking more than one alcoholic beverage per day, never having children, and having a prior breast biopsy.Despite breast density being associated with a 1.2 to four times higher risk of developing breast cancer, according to the study, few women perceived breast density to be a strong personal risk factor. Instead, 93 per cent of women saw family history as posing the greatest risk, followed by 65 per cent of women who said that being overweight or obese was a greater risk than breast density.Of the 61 women who were interviewed, only six of them described breast density as contributing to breast cancer risk. Although, most women did correctly note that breast density could make mammograms harder to read.When asked about what they could take to reduce their breast cancer risk, roughly one-third of women said that they weren’t sure if it was possible to reduce their breast cancer risk, or they were unaware of what actions they could take.However, there are many actions people can take to reduce their risk of developing breast cancer. A breast screening, also known as a mammogram, is an x-ray picture of the breast used to check for breast cancer in women. A mammogram can detect otherwise invisible signs or symptoms of breast cancer that cannot be felt, or can check for breast cancer after a lump or other signs of breast cancer has been detected.The American Cancer Society recommends women between the ages 45 to 54 should get a mammogram every year. Women between 40 and 44 also have the option to start early screening, and those who are 55 and older can switch to a mammogram every other year if they choose to do so.Nearly half of all women who are 40 and older who get mammograms are found to have dense breasts, per the National Cancer Institute. Breast density is often inherited, but it can also be found in women who are younger, are taking hormone replacement therapy, or have a lower body weight.While breast density can make it more difficult to interpret a mammogram, a newer type of mammogram called digital breast tomosynthesis - or 3D mammography - has recently appeared to be more helpful in women with dense breasts.Other studies have shown that imaging tests like an ultrasound or a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can help find some breast cancers that can’t be seen on mammograms. Experts have not yet firmly suggested women with dense breasts should receive additional screening, according to the Recommendation Statement on Breast Cancer Screening by the US Preventive Services Task Force.

30-01-2023 11:53

How Many Times Can You Wear Your Clothes Without Washing Them?

Kristen Rogers wrote this article in CNN:The number of times it’s appropriate to wear clothing items without washing them often seems based more on folklore or a person’s upbringing than professional advice.TikTok user Allison Delperdang started a heated online debate when she posted a video January 10 saying she wears the same pajamas multiple times.“When I was younger my parents always made us wear pajamas … multiple nights in a row because they weren’t dirty, and I still do that as an adult,” she said. “I need to know if, like, as adults we’re still doing that, or should I be literally making dirty clothes every single night?”The answer - for pajamas as well as other clothes - technically depends on personal aspects such as sweat level and lifestyle, though for many people other, more abstract factors may come into play, experts say.Our beliefs about clothing hygiene are largely “societal and cultural,” said Dr. Anthony Rossi, an assistant attending dermatologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York City and a fellow of the American Academy of Dermatology. “People tend to over wash and ‘over hygiene’ themselves, because especially in America, we have a luxury of being able to do all that stuff all the time.”Rewearing the same clothes - particularly on consecutive days - is “linked to avoiding decision fatigue, hence wearing the same clothes involves less decisions to make and less stress every morning,” said Manal Mohammed, senior lecturer of medical microbiology at the University of Westminster in London.Not knowing when to wash your clothes can have consequences on both ends of the spectrum. Washing them too seldom could lead to skin problems or infections, and washing them too often could harm your clothing. The latter can also result in unnecessary laundry and use of resources.Here are some guiding principles to help you determine when a garment can be worn again without washing and when it’s time to toss it in the hamper.The universal rule: What you must washThere’s no hard and fast rule for how many times you can wear clothing again, but experts say there are a few types that should be washed after every use: underwear, socks, tights, leggings and activewear. This advice also applies to any other clothes with stains, sweat, odor or visible dirt, Mohammed said.These kinds of clothes are “on a part of our body that just has a lot of natural bacteria that lives on our body, like our microbiome, (yeast) and bacteria,” Rossi said. “Then from day-to-day activities, we sweat. That just breeds moisture and an environment where this bacteria can overgrow.”Bacteria overgrowth can lead to infections, fungus and other skin issues, he added.In addition to bacteria from sweat, clothes worn in gyms or sports settings can come into contact with bacteria such as Staphylococcus aureus, resulting in infections common in community and hospital settings. Those infections can become serious if they enter internal tissues or the bloodstream.Some people might let their workout clothes dry via air or a dryer, intending to make them safe to wear again the next day. But that approach makes the situation worse, Rossi said.“Heat is going to make the bacteria grow. It’s not hot enough to sterilize them,” he said. “It’s really the washing with soap and water (that you need) - and with hot water, especially, because it’s going to help loosen that dirt and sebum and really get rid of bacteria.”When it comes to why you shouldn’t wear socks again without washing first, “fungal infections on the feet and toes are just rampant,” said dermatologist Dr. Jeremy Fenton, medical director for Schweiger Dermatology Group in New York City and a clinical instructor of dermatology at Mount Sinai Hospital. “Inside of our shoes is the perfect environment for breeding fungus. It’s warm, it’s humid, it’s dark.”Because of that, you should wash your shoes or at least the insoles in a washing machine at least once per month, Rossi said.Clothes you can rewearFor pajamas, outerwear, jeans and other clothes, how many times you can wear them without washing is based on the same principles for undergarments or activewear.“As far as your pants and your shirts, I think it’s all a level of comfort and how much you’re perspiring throughout the day,” Rossi said. “A lot of people wear undershirts. The undershirt would be something to wash, whereas your top shirt you don’t really need to wash.”If you don’t wear underwear, you need to wash your clothing before wearing it again since it came into contact with your genital skin, Rossi said.If you usually shower before bed, wear underwear and sweat little to none when wearing pajamas, you could wear them for a week without washing, experts said. But if you don’t do these things, you’d need to wash them every time.Outerwear - such as coats or jackets - typically doesn’t need to be washed more than once a month since it doesn’t touch your skin, Rossi said. “If you’re wearing it every day, probably (wash it) every two weeks,” he suggested.Whether and how often to wash jeans can be a hot topic, since many people want to maintain the integrity of the fabric, which is usually stiffer and more durable than others. If jeans aren’t sweaty, dirty or stained, they don’t have to be washed often, Rossi said. “I personally don’t wash my jeans,” he added.Mohammed recommended washing jeans monthly but acknowledged it depends on your lifestyle and environment.“If somebody were to tell me that they were wearing their jeans for months on end and not washing them and they hadn’t had any problems with their skin or problems with odor, I wouldn’t see any problem at all,” Fenton said.The most important questions you should ask yourself, experts say, when considering whether to wear something again without washing are these: Does it smell? Do I have any skin conditions, such as eczema, a rash or a skin lesion? Is it visibly dirty? Is it sweaty? Did I wear underwear with this?“The main point is that the answer is going to be very variable,” Fenton said.

03-02-2023 14:41

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WHO: US to participate in meeting on influenza vaccine composition

The United States will take part in a World Health Organization meeting at the end of the month to determine the composition of upcoming influenza vaccines, the agency's official said at a press conference on Wednesday.Washington officially left the WHO in January after a year of warnings that doing so would hurt public health in the U.S. and globally, saying its decision reflected failures in the U.N. health agency's management of the COVID-19 pandemic.It has been unclear how much the country would work with the WHO following the departure, and the collaboration on flu vaccines is a sign of an ongoing link.Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's director for epidemic and pandemic preparedness, said the global influenza surveillance and response network — a system of more than 150 laboratories across 130 countries — plays a central role in tracking seasonal and zoonotic influenza viruses and updates vaccine recommendations every six months.There are seven collaborating centers, including facilities in the U.S., the UK and Australia.Van Kerkhove said there had also been "a slight dip" in the global circulation of influenza virus samples after funding challenges, but shipments had now resumed.GUINEA-BISSAU VACCINE STUDY 'UNETHICAL' - TEDROSAt the same press conference, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said a planned U.S.-funded research in Guinea-Bissau to study the effects of hepatitis B vaccines on newborns, which has drawn significant criticism, is unethical."As far as WHO's position is concerned, it's unethical to proceed with this study," Tedros said, but added that it was ultimately a domestic decision.African health officials in January said the study has not been canceled, but will undergo further ethical review.Scientists have opposed the study because some of the newborns involved would not get the vaccine, which is known to be safe and save lives, in a country with high rates of hepatitis B. The disease transmits commonly from mother to child during birth and can cause liver failure and cancer.The study's researchers say the project is ethical because the vaccine is not yet administered at birth in Guinea-Bissau, where the first dose is given at six weeks.The research was due to investigate potential "non-specific effects" of the vaccine, including skin disorders and neuro-developmental disorders, such as autism.

11-02-2026 20:37

To Hug or Not to Hug? Can Comfort Be Measured in Seconds?

On National Hugging Day, hugs are everywhere. They appear in captions, campaigns, and cheerful reminders to squeeze a little longer, as if comfort could be measured in seconds. The hug is often presented as a universal language, simple and harmless, an emotional shortcut we all supposedly understand the same way.Psychology, however, tells a more nuanced story.For clinical psychologist Tatiana Maalouf, hugging is neither a trend nor a sentimental extra. Speaking to MTV’s English website, she explains that hugs can be a powerful biological and emotional resource, but only for some people, and only in certain contexts.From the moment we are born, regulation does not begin within us but between us, Maalouf explains. Long before language, the nervous system learns safety through proximity, rhythm, and presence. For many, physical touch, including hugging, becomes one of the earliest ways the body recognizes safety. When a hug is wanted and experienced as secure, it bypasses language and speaks directly to the nervous system.Neurobiologically, hugging can trigger the release of oxytocin, the hormone linked to bonding and emotional regulation, while reducing cortisol, the body’s main stress hormone, according to Maalouf. This shift allows the body to step out of survival mode. Breathing slows, muscles relax, and the nervous system receives a quiet reassurance that it is not alone. “Hugs don’t fix the problem,” she notes, “but they can help the body feel safe enough to cope with it.”But this experience is not universal.Not all nervous systems experience touch as calming. For some people, Maalouf explains, because of trauma, personal history, sensory sensitivity, cultural norms, or neurodivergence, physical contact can feel intrusive or even threatening. In those cases, a hug does not regulate the body. It activates it. What is intended as comfort may instead trigger distress.This is why consent and emotional attunement are essential. A helpful hug, Maalouf says, is mutual, responsive, and respectful of boundaries. Without that, touch loses its regulating power.Emotionally, hugs work through co regulation, but co regulation is not limited to physical contact. Safety can also be created through eye contact, tone of voice, shared silence, or simply being emotionally present. The key ingredient, she stresses, is not the hug itself, but the felt sense of being with someone.In today’s fast paced and highly digital world, physical affection has decreased for many, while emotional overload has increased. Screens allow connection, but they cannot replace embodied presence. At the same time, Maalouf cautions against pushing physical closeness in the name of connection. True closeness respects differences in how people experience comfort and safety.Hugs can be especially meaningful during periods of grief, stress, or uncertainty, but only for those who experience touch as safe, she says. For others, support may take quieter forms such as sitting nearby, holding space, or listening without trying to fix.As for how long a hug should last or how often people should hug, the answer lies not in numbers. Research suggests longer hugs may enhance oxytocin release, but no duration makes an unwanted hug beneficial. Regulation comes from choice, not exposure.From a mental health perspective, National Hugging Day is not about hugging more. It is an invitation to reflect on how we seek comfort, how we respect boundaries, and how we offer care in ways that truly feel safe.Hugs do not heal everyone.But being seen, respected, and emotionally held, in whatever form that takes, remains essential for all of us.

21-01-2026 14:23

Astronomers Spot Mysterious ‘Iron Bar’ in Well-Known Ring Nebula

The Ring Nebula, a stunning celestial structure residing in our neighborhood of the Milky Way galaxy, was discovered by French astronomer Charles Messier in 1779 and has been studied extensively ever since. But that does not mean we have it all figured out.Researchers have spotted a large cloud of iron atoms in the shape of a bar stretching about 3.7 trillion miles (6 trillion km) long across the face of the nebula, which is a glowing shell of gas and dust expelled by a dying star, and are searching for an explanation.They said it is possible the iron atoms, collectively comparable to the mass of Earth's molten iron core, are the remnants of a rocky planet that was vaporized when the star threw off its outer layers, though they cautioned that such an explanation is mere conjecture at the moment. The inner rocky planets of our solar system, potentially even Earth, could face the same fate when the sun goes through these same death throes billions of years from now.The researchers made the observation using a new instrument called WEAVE, short for WHT Enhanced Area Velocity Explorer, on the William Herschel Telescope, located on the Atlantic Ocean island of La Palma in Spain's Canary Islands."It is exciting to see that even a very familiar object - much studied over many decades - can throw up a new surprise when observed in a new way," said astronomer Roger Wesson of Cardiff University in Wales and University College London, lead author of the research published in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society."It's a classic object for professional and amateur astronomers alike to observe," Wesson said. "Although it's too faint to see with the naked eye, it's quite easy to spot with binoculars. In a small telescope, you can see the ring-like appearance."The Ring Nebula, also called Messier 57, is located about 2,600 light years from Earth in the constellation Lyra. A light-year is the distance light travels in a year, 5.9 trillion miles (9.5 trillion km). It is believed to have formed roughly 4,000 years ago, very recently in cosmic time.It is familiar even to beginning students of astronomy."You'll find it in many astronomy textbooks," University College London astronomer and study co-author Janet Drew said.That is why the iron bar is so intriguing."No other chemical element that we have detected seems to sit in this same bar. This is weird, frankly. Its importance lies in the simple fact that we have no ready explanation for it, yet," Drew said. "The origin of the iron might trace back to the vaporization of a planet. But there could be another way to make the feature that doesn't involve a planet.""A planet like the Earth would contain enough iron to form the bar, but how it would end up in a bar shape has no good explanation," Wesson said.The nebula formed when a star about twice the sun's mass ran out of nuclear fuel in its core, swelled up into what is called a red giant and expelled its outer layers before becoming a compact stellar remnant known as a white dwarf, approximately the size of our planet."From the perspective of Earth, it has the appearance of a ring, although it's believed that it's actually more like a cylinder of material that we are seeing end-on. It's made up mostly of hydrogen and helium, with small quantities of heavier elements," Wesson said.About 3,000 such nebulas are known in our galaxy. Studying them lets astronomers examine the life stage of stars when chemical elements forged by nuclear processes inside them are released into interstellar space to be recycled and contribute to the next generation of stars and planets."We look forward to getting more data to follow up on this discovery, to try to unravel this new problem and work out where the iron bar has come from," Wesson said.

19-01-2026 14:10

Indian Scientists Predict How Bird Flu Could Spread to Humans

For years, scientists have warned that bird flu - better known as H5N1 - could one day make the dangerous leap from birds to humans and trigger a global health crisis.Avian flu - a type of influenza - is entrenched across South and South-East Asia and has occasionally infected humans since emerging in China in the late 1990s. From 2003 to August 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 990 human H5N1 cases across 25 countries, including 475 deaths - a 48% fatality rate.In the US alone, the virus has struck more than 180 million birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds in 18 states, and infected at least 70 people - mostly farmworkers - causing several hospitalisations and one death. In January, three tigers and a leopard died at a wildlife rescue centre in India's Nagpur city from the virus that typically infects birds.Symptoms in humans mimic a severe flu: high fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches and, at times, conjunctivitis. Some people have no symptoms at all. The risk to humans remains low, but authorities are watching H5N1 closely for any shift that could make it spread more easily.That concern is what prompted new peer-reviewed modelling by Indian researchers Philip Cherian and Gautam Menon of Ashoka University, which simulates how an H5N1 outbreak might unfold in humans and what early interventions could stop it before it spreads.In other words, the model published in the BMC Public Health journal uses real world data and computer simulations to play out how an outbreak might spread in real life."The threat of an H5N1 pandemic in humans is a genuine one, but we can hope to forestall it through better surveillance and a more nimble public-health response," Prof Menon told the BBC.A bird flu pandemic, researchers say, would begin quietly: a single infected bird passing the virus to a human - most likely a farmer, market worker or someone handling poultry. From there, the danger lies not in that first infection but in what happens next: sustained human-to-human transmission.Because real outbreaks start with limited, messy data, the researchers turned to BharatSim, an open-source simulation platform originally built for Covid 19 modelling, but versatile enough to study other diseases.The key takeaway for policymakers is how narrow the window for action can be before an outbreak spirals out of control, the researchers say.The paper estimates that once cases rise beyond roughly two to 10, the disease is likely to spread beyond primary and secondary contacts.Primary contacts are people who have had direct, close contact with an infected person, such as household members, caregivers or close colleagues. Secondary contacts are those who have not met the infected person but have been in close contact with a primary contact.If households of primary contacts are quarantined when just two cases are detected, the outbreak can almost certainly be contained, the research found.But by the time 10 cases are identified, it is overwhelmingly likely that the infection has already spread into the wider population, making its trajectory virtually indistinguishable from a scenario with no early intervention.To keep the study grounded in real-world conditions, the researchers chose a model of a single village in Namakkal district, Tamil Nadu - the heart of India's poultry belt.Namakkal is home to more than 1,600 poultry farms and some 70 million chickens; it produces over 60 million eggs a day.A village of 9,667 residents was generated using a synthetic community - households, workplaces, market spaces - and seeded with infected birds to mimic real-life exposure. (A synthetic community is an artificial, computer-generated population that mimics the characteristics and behaviours of a real population.)In the simulation, the virus starts at one workplace - a mid-sized farm or wet market - spreads first to people there (primary contacts), and then moves outward to others (seconday contacts) they interact with through homes, schools and other workplaces. Homes, schools and workplaces formed a fixed network.By tracking primary and secondary infections, the researchers estimated key transmission metrics, including the basic reproductive number, R0 - which measures how many people, on average, one infected person passes the virus on to. In the absence of a real-world pandemic, the researchers instead modelled a range of plausible transmission speeds.Then they tested what happens when different interventions - culling birds, quarantining close contacts and targeted vaccination - kicked in.The results were blunt.Culling of birds works - but only if done before the virus infects a human.If a spillover does occur, timing becomes everything, the researchers found.Isolating infected people and quarantining households can stop the virus at the secondary stage. But once tertiary infections appear - friends of friends, or contacts of contacts - the outbreak slips out of control unless authorities impose much tougher measures, including lockdowns.Targeted vaccination helps by raising the threshold at which the virus can sustain itself, though it does little to change the immediate risk within households.The simulations also highlighted an awkward trade-off.Quarantine, introduced too early, keeps families together for long stretches - and increases the chance that infected individuals will pass the virus to those they live with. Introduced too late, it does little to slow the outbreak at all.The researchers say this approach comes with caveats.The model relies on one synthetic village, with fixed household sizes, workplaces and daily movement patterns. It does not include simultaneous outbreaks seeded by migratory birds or by poultry networks. Nor does it account for behavioural shifts - mask-wearing, for instance - once people know birds are dying.Seema Lakdawala, a virologist at Atlanta-based Emory University, adds another caveat: this simulation model "assumes a very efficient transmission of influenza viruses"."Transmission is complex and not every strain will have the same efficiency as another," she says, adding that scientists are also now starting to understand that not all people infected with seasonal flu spread the virus equally.She says emerging research shows that only a "subset of flu-positive individuals actually shed infectious influenza virus into the air".This mirrors the super-spreader phenomenon seen with Covid-19, though it is far less well characterised for flu - a gap that could strongly influence how the virus spreads through human populations.What happens if H5N1 becomes successful in the human population?Dr Lakdawala believes that it "will cause a large disruption likely more similar to the 2009 [swine flu] pandemic rather than Covid-19"."This is because we are more prepared for an influenza pandemic. We have known licensed antivirals that are effective against the H5N1 strains as an early defence and stockpiled candidate H5 vaccines that could be deployed in the short term."But complacency would be a mistake. Dr Lakdawala says if H5N1 becomes established in humans, it could re-assort - or intermingle - with existing strains, amplifying its public-health impact. Such mixing could reshape seasonal influenza, triggering "chaotic and unpredictable seasonal epidemics".The Indian modellers say the simulations can be run in real time and updated as data come in.With refinements - better reporting delays, asymptomatic cases - they could give public-health officials something priceless in the early hours of an outbreak: a sense of which actions matter most, before the window for containment snaps shut.

18-12-2025 09:40

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