BRICS expansion introduces new monopolies, global dichotomies, cold war nostalgia, and internal divisions in the East and West alike. News of an expanding BRICS circulated the globe in late August as the announcement was made to introduce Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran into the coalition, to cheers from supporters and fears or jeers from the United States and the West.

Founded in 2009 by Russia, the BRICS founding members were Brazil, Russia, India, and China, gaining the membership of South Africa a year later. The current expansion, the first since 2010, will take effect on January 1st, 2024, and is a far cry from the massive geopolitical powerhouse it first seems to be.

Let’s talk data

Population: The coalition originally contained 40% of the global population with 3.3 billion people. The 2024 expansion would propel the population to 3.8 billion, or 47%.

GDP: While all original members are trillion-dollar economies aside from South Africa, the bulk of the 28 trillion-dollar GDP is made by China to have a combined 26.4% of the global economy, marginally increasing to 29.3% in 2024.

Land Area: A rise from 26% to 32% of the world is no easy feat, but is still a slim increase compared to the 23% of the globe covered by only three members; Russia, China, and Brazil.

Oil Production: This is what it all comes down to. The oil production of BRICS countries more than doubled with the introduction of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, going from 20.4% to 46% overnight once the clock strikes 12 on New Year’s Eve.

Add to that the proposed BRICS currency, advocated for by Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the countries in the process of joining the next expansion; Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Palestine, Belarus, DR Congo, Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, and Honduras, and the cold war would appear to be back on track with a duality of power between Russia and the US.

Nevertheless, BRICS is not the Warsaw pact, but an informal club where members are not bound by a defense treaty and do not have an official military alliance like NATO. The ramifications of that become more apparent when looking at the Sino-Bhutanese border disputes. The largest BRICS member in terms of population, India, has been engaged in military stand-offs against China, the largest BRICS economy and military force, in defense of a non-BRICS country, Bhutan.

These disagreements are not uncommon among BRICS members and often lead to militaristic action, something unheard of among NATO allies. Additionally, the unified BRICS currency proposed by President Lula was dead on arrival, as the South African side objected to such a discussion during the summit held on the 24th of August, with India rejecting the notion entirely, and Russia and China choosing diplomatic neutrality on the matter.

The two driving forces behind countries seeking a BRICS membership are not defensive but economic. In the case of oil-producing giants such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, an economic partnership with countries that have a more relaxed approach towards environmental regulations serves as future-proofing for their economies while the West pursues a greener approach to energy production. On the other hand, countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and other developing nations have expressed the intent to achieve closer ties to China and diversify their economies. 

Considering the diminishing populations of China and Russia, the plateauing of the Chinese economy, and the ongoing internal disputes within and among BRICS members, it appears that we are in for a protracted wait before the coalition can genuinely challenge the NATO alliance or Western dominance in terms of geopolitical and economic influence.